Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.824800 1.904515 1.988467 2.083954 2.190165 2.305421 2.440986
2025-11-16 1.729406 1.831606 1.942920 2.074425 2.227284 2.401686 2.619318
2025-11-23 1.659886 1.775915 1.905316 2.062475 2.251352 2.475583 2.769626
2025-11-30 1.617274 1.745321 1.891067 2.072458 2.297203 2.574275 2.956051
2025-12-07 1.550609 1.682131 1.833704 2.025243 2.267222 2.573047 3.009014
2025-12-14 1.509989 1.646950 1.806855 2.012216 2.277180 2.621431 3.131778
2025-12-21 1.470453 1.610893 1.776612 1.992317 2.275636 2.652665 3.231674
2025-12-28 1.454619 1.602310 1.778929 2.012797 2.327189 2.759208 3.456110
2026-01-04 1.445265 1.600835 1.789420 2.043599 2.393799 2.892205 3.743021
2026-01-11 1.420765 1.579494 1.773664 2.038543 2.409757 2.951462 3.916206
2026-01-18 1.402023 1.564514 1.765150 2.042294 2.437753 3.030693 4.138501
2026-01-25 1.368046 1.529270 1.729213 2.007034 2.406889 3.014397 4.177203
2026-02-01 1.345040 1.507968 1.711512 1.997188 2.414467 3.063247 4.360383
2026-02-08 1.324499 1.489098 1.696183 1.989661 2.424596 3.116662 4.564941
2026-02-15 1.304235 1.469942 1.679724 1.979615 2.429933 3.161994 4.763009
2026-02-22 1.292940 1.461901 1.677553 1.989387 2.465952 3.263789 5.123319
2026-03-01 1.262330 1.428041 1.639831 1.946660 2.416955 3.208232 5.073242
2026-03-08 1.244783 1.410827 1.624055 1.935066 2.416839 3.242270 5.270745
2026-03-15 1.225684 1.391148 1.604400 1.917058 2.405342 3.253879 5.410933
2026-03-22 1.220930 1.390130 1.609969 1.936061 2.454887 3.386870 5.962655
2026-03-29 1.219670 1.393604 1.621663 1.964467 2.521784 3.563550 6.778148
2026-04-05 1.207154 1.381779 1.611808 1.959948 2.532368 3.625545 7.223820
2026-04-12 1.197875 1.374057 1.607413 1.963475 2.556940 3.720619 7.893031